sumanparvez ® 31-Май-2018 17:16

Foundations of Risk Analysis


Year: 2003
Language: english
Author: Terje Aven
Genre: Guide
Format: PDF/EPUB
Quality: Unknown
Pages count: 198
Description: Foundations of Risk Analysis
A Knowledge and Decision-Oriented Perspective
This book is about foundational issues in risk and risk analysis; how risk should be expressed; what the meaning of risk is; how to understand and use models; how to understand and address uncertainty; and how parametric probability models like the Poisson model should be understood and used. A unifying and holistic approach to risk and uncertainty is presented, for different applications and disciplines. Industry and business applications are highlighted, but aspects related to other areas are included. Decision situations covered include concept optimization and the need for measures to reduce risk for a production system, the choice between alternative investment projects and the use of a type of medical treatment.
Additional info: A.1.6 Some Remarks on Probability Models and Their
Parameters 164
A.1.7 Random Processes 165
A.2 Classical Statistical Inference 166

Contents

Preface ix
1 Introduction 1
1.1 The Importance of Risk and Uncertainty Assessments 1
1.2 The Need to Develop a Proper Risk Analysis Framework 4
Bibliographic Notes 6
2 Common Thinking about Risk and Risk Analysis 7
2.1 Accident Risk 7
2.1.1 Accident Statistics 7
2.1.2 Risk Analysis 11
2.1.3 Reliability Analysis 24
2.2 Economic Risk 28
2.2.1 General Definitions of Economic Risk in Business and
Project Management 28
2.2.2 A Cost Risk Analysis 30
2.2.3 Finance and Portfolio Theory 31
2.2.4 Treatment of Risk in Project Discounted Cash Flow
Analysis 34
2.3 Discussion and Conclusions 36
2.3.1 The Classical Approach 36
2.3.2 The Bayesian Paradigm 37
2.3.3 Economic Risk and Rational Decision-Making 39
2.3.4 Other Perspectives and Applications 40
2.3.5 Conclusions 42
Bibliographic Notes 43
3 How to Think about Risk and Risk Analysis 47
3.1 Basic Ideas and Principles 47
3.1.1 Background Information 50
3.1.2 Models and Simplifications in Probability Considerations 51
3.1.3 Observable Quantities 51
3.2 Economic Risk 52
3.2.1 A Simple Cost Risk Example 52
3.2.2 Production Risk 55vi CONTENTS
3.2.3 Business and Project Management 57
3.2.4 Investing Money in a Stock Market 58
3.2.5 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 59
3.3 Accident Risk 60
Bibliographic Notes 62
4 How to Assess Uncertainties and Specify Probabilities 63
4.1 What Is a Good Probability Assignment? 64
4.1.1 Criteria for Evaluating Probabilities 64
4.1.2 Heuristics and Biases 66
4.1.3 Evaluation of the Assessors 67
4.1.4 Standardization and Consensus 68
4.2 Modelling 68
4.2.1 Examples of Models 69
4.2.2 Discussion 70
4.3 Assessing Uncertainty of Y 71
4.3.1 Assignments Based on Classical Statistical Methods 72
4.3.2 Analyst Judgements Using All Sources of Information 73
4.3.3 Formal Expert Elicitation 74
4.3.4 Bayesian Analysis 75
4.4 Uncertainty Assessments of a Vector X 83
4.4.1 Cost Risk 83
4.4.2 Production Risk 85
4.4.3 Reliability Analysis 86
4.5 Discussion and Conclusions 90
Bibliographic Notes 92
5 How to Use Risk Analysis to Support Decision-Making 95
5.1 What Is a Good Decision? 96
5.1.1 Features of a Decision-Making Model 97
5.1.2 Decision-Support Tools 98
5.1.3 Discussion 103
5.2 Some Examples 106
5.2.1 Accident Risk 106
5.2.2 Scrap in Place or Complete Removal of Plant 108
5.2.3 Production System 113
5.2.4 Reliability Target 114
5.2.5 Health Risk 116
5.2.6 Warranties 119
5.2.7 Offshore Development Project 120
5.2.8 Risk Assessment: National Sector 122
5.2.9 Multi-Attribute Utility Example 124
5.3 Risk Problem Classification Schemes 127
5.3.1 A Scheme Based on Potential Consequences and Uncertainties 127
5.3.2 A Scheme Based on Closeness to Hazard and Level of
Authority 131
Bibliographic Notes 142
6 Summary and Conclusions 145
Appendix A Basic Theory of Probability and Statistics 149
A.1 Probability Theory 149
A.1.1 Types of Probabilities 149
A.1.2 Probability Rules 151
A.1.3 Random Quantities (Random Variables) 155
A.1.4 Some Common Discrete Probability Distributions
(Models) 159
A.1.5 Some Common Continuous Distributions (Models) 160
A.2.1 Non-Parametric Estimation 166
A.2.2 Estimation of Distribution Parameters 167
A.2.3 Testing Hypotheses 169
A.2.4 Regression 170
A.3 Bayesian Inference 171
A.3.1 Statistical (Bayesian) Decision Analysis 173
Bibliographic Notes 174
Appendix B Terminology 175
Bibliography 179
Index 187

Screenshots

Оценка: 5 / 5 (Голосов: 6)
Arcan 03-Июн-2018 20:23
sumanparvez,
Registered: 7 days | Completed: 0 times
Seeder not seen: Never
Did you download your torrent file back from the site and add it to your client software ? Nobody can download your release until you do it.
0
Похожие релизы
Chinese Anti-ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) Development: Drivers, Trajectories, and Strategies -…
Construction of Marine and Offshore Structures - Ben C. Gerwick, Jr [2007, PDF]
Global Navigation Satellite Systems Inertial Navigation and Integration - Mohinder S. Grewal [2013,…
IEEE Recommended Practice for Electrical Installations on Shipboard - IEEE Industry Applications…
Offshore support vessels (a practical guide) - Gary Ritchie Master Mariner [2008, PDF]
Seafloor Processes and Geotechnology - Ronald C. Chaney, Gideon Almagor [2016, PDF]
Wartsila Engines W20, W26, W32, W38, W46, W50, W64 Etc / Project guide for marine applications…
  • Ответить

Текущее время: Сегодня 14:57

Часовой пояс: GMT + 3