mmh ® 29-Jul-2020 10:14

Misconceptions of Risk


Year: 2010
Language: english
Author: Terje Aven
Genre: Reference book
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Format: PDF
Quality: OCR without errors
Pages count: 252
Description: The book is about fundamental issues in risk analysis and risk management, and it provides recommendations and guidance in this context. It is, however, not
a recipe book, and does not tell you which risk analysis methods should be used in different situations. What is covered is the general thinking process related to
the understanding of risk, and how we should describe, analyse, evaluate, manage and communicate risk. Examples are provided to illustrate the ideas.

Contents

Preface vii
Acknowledgements ix
1 Risk is equal to the expected value 1
2 Risk is a probability or probability distribution 17
3 Risk equals a probability distribution quantile (value-at-risk) 35
4 Risk equals uncertainty 43
5 Risk is equal to an event 55
6 Risk equals expected disutility 61
7 Risk is restricted to the case of objective probabilities 71
8 Risk is the same as risk perception 83
9 Risk relates to negative consequences only 93
10 Risk is determined by the historical data 97
11 Risk assessments produce an objective risk picture 107
12 There are large inherent uncertainties in risk analyses 115
13 Model uncertainty should be quantified 135
14 It is meaningful and useful to distinguish between stochastic and epistemic uncertainties 145
15 Bayesian analysis is based on the use of probability models and bayesian updating 149
16 Sensitivity analysis is a type of uncertainty analysis 167vi CONTENTS
17 The main objective of risk management is risk reduction 179
18 Decision-making under uncertainty should be based on science (analysis) 191
19 The precautionary principle and risk management cannot be meaningfully integrated 215
20 Conclusions 227
Index 239

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