SKM ® 17-Ноя-2020 17:51

Future Maritime Trade Flows


Year: 2020
Language: english
Author: ITF organises global dialogue for better transport
Genre: Research papers
Publisher: International Transport Forum
Format: PDF
Quality: eBook
Pages count: 26
Description: This report addresses uncertainty related to future maritime trade flows. It provides a synthesis of
discussions at the Roundtable on Future Maritime Trade Flows, organised by the International Transport
Forum in April 2019 in Paris, France. The Roundtable brought together experts from academia, consultancy
and international organisations, as well as representatives from the shipping sector, ports, terminals and
governments. The discussions focused on five themes that form the framework of this report, four of which
are treated more in-depth in discussion papers written for the Roundtable. Two of the themes are related
to the demand-side: one is directly on the demand for maritime trade; the other on the impact that
environmental regulation for shipping could have on maritime transport costs and – via these costs – on
demand for maritime trade. The three other themes are more related to the supply side and look into
maritime business strategies, the Belt and Road Initiative and Arctic shipping.

Contents

Table of contents
Executive summary .............................................................................................................................. 5
Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 7
Demand for maritime trade ................................................................................................................. 8
Growth as driver of maritime trade ................................................................................................. 8
Energy transition ............................................................................................................................. 8
Regionalisation of trade ................................................................................................................... 9
Additional future drivers .................................................................................................................. 9
Decarbonising maritime shipping ....................................................................................................... 10
Decarbonising shipping .................................................................................................................. 10
How to decarbonise shipping? ...................................................................................................... 10
Maritime trade costs and trade flows ............................................................................................ 11
Impacts on states ........................................................................................................................... 12
Maritime business strategies ............................................................................................................. 13
Economies of scale ........................................................................................................................ 13
Vertical integration ........................................................................................................................ 14
Towards value-added shipping ...................................................................................................... 15
Digitalisation .................................................................................................................................. 15
New infrastructure: Belt and Road ..................................................................................................... 17
Belt and Road infrastructure and corridors ................................................................................... 17
Feasibility of BRI projects ............................................................................................................... 18
New routes: Arctic shipping ............................................................................................................... 19
Constraints ..................................................................................................................................... 19
Opportunities................................................................................................................................. 19
Implications for maritime trade modelling ......................................................................................... 21
References ......................................................................................................................................... 22
Annex A. List of Roundtable participants ............................................................................................ 23

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